Warning: This article contains graphic images that some readers may find disturbing.
By the 2030s, Earth has a better than 50% chance of experiencing a major disruption — if not an alien invasion.
For the first time, NASA scientists have presented their best projections for what might happen to us in the decades and centuries ahead — and the predictions are not good.
In a paper presented to a conference in Australia this week, NASA’s Lori Garver — the US space agency’s acting administrator — and other researchers said that “the majority of credible projections” find Earth-like planets out in the galaxy by the middle of the century.
Are aliens looking?
But these exoplanets don’t mean we’re going to be very impressed.
The experts said that a 99% chance of supermassive black holes gobbling Earth up is not good enough.
Also a matter of concern, the analysis shows that the chances of a black hole — or our entire galaxy collapsing into one — is about equal to or better than the likelihood of a large asteroid hitting the Earth.
Image copyright NASA
And don’t think the opportunities for life elsewhere will be limited to Earth.
‘There is a much higher likelihood of alien life’
Professor Shelley Carson, one of the scientists leading the research team, called this stark statistic a warning shot to humanity to “renew our commitment to exploring our own galaxy”.
“There is a much higher likelihood of alien life than we think is possible. More likely than us coming into contact with an Earth-like planet, we will have contact with an extraterrestrial civilisation,” she said.
But just because there is a “higher likelihood of aliens than humans doesn’t mean that we should be fearmongering about extraterrestrial life”.
Image copyright NASA
“Alien life is not to be feared. There is nothing wrong with a determination to seek out life and understand it when there is so much to be gained by doing so.”
Because there are “substantial data indicating a signal” of intelligent life from extrasolar planets “the US government should improve its tracking and decision-making capabilities,” the paper said.
Other suggestions
As well as launching new missions to better learn about the universe, NASA hopes to “revise existing policies”, with a focus on the longer term.
For instance, it plans to put its telescopes to “better use” and not just study the stars and planets.
The agency also calls for resources that are “more geographically diverse”.
“For instance, resources for Earth support a living and multi-planetary environment in Earth’s central region, within the boundaries of the habitable zone for the vast majority of rocky exoplanets… resources at this location are limited to support a person and its food supply,” the paper reads.
Image copyright NASA
Does that mean aliens can come out and check out the various members of the family?
No.
The paper said that in a “future objective [NASA] should reconsider open access to imagery from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite and new systems that would use these missions to search for evidence of life”.
But don’t worry, because there are other not-too-much-more-than-the-universe humans at NASA looking at what will happen to our planet in the next few decades.
Image copyright NASA
You see, tomorrow’s tomorrow
Image copyright NASA